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Fully release the demographic dividend in the field of elderly health

  Author: Cai Yan (Chief Expert of National High -end Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  Improving people’s health promotion policies and promoting the realization of basic elderly care services for all elderly people is a strategic deployment made by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It is an important part of the implementation of active response to the national strategy of the population aging and realizing the high -quality development of the population.In this year’s “Government Work Report”, health and pensions have also been implemented in a series of government work deployments.As an important content of social security, elderly health services need to be promoted by improving the supply of basic public services; the health industry involving the elderly people is the intersection of the silver -haired economy and the large health industry, which can become a new economic growth point.Therefore, the significance of promoting the health of the elderly has even exceeded the improvement of the basic public service system and the development of the old service industry itself.Starting from the active response to the aging of the population, explore the development of the healthy industry of the elderly, and cultivate economic growth momentum from both sides of supply and demand.

  The challenge brought by the acceleration of population aging

  With the development and change of China’s population, the declining childization and population growth caused by the low fertility rate will form a severe challenge to economic and social development.The deepening population aging has also become a new national conditions.From the perspective of international definitions internationally, the aging rate of China in 2000, the population of 65 years and above, reached 7.0%, marking the overall entering aging society. In 2021, China’s aging rate increased to 14.2%, marking the significanceThe overall enters the aging society; this data was further increased to 15.4%in 2023.In the past ten years, the aging rate has increased by about half a percentage point each year.According to this trend, it is estimated that by 2033 or 2034, China’s aging rate will exceed 21.0%, marking that China will become a highly aging society.

  Among the many challenges brought by aging, the health needs of the elderly population are more prominent, and the contradiction between supply and demand is greater.According to the World Health Organization data, the life expectancy of Chinese population was 77.4 years in 2019, and the expected health life was 68.5 years.In other words, the elderly in China have 8.9 years in an unhealthy state, and the problem of “longevity and unhealthy” in the elderly group is more prominent.From an international comparison, there is a difference between a life span and expected health life. It is not abnormal.For example, Cameroon, which, Australia, as a high -income country, Brazil, which is a medium -income country, and the medium -sized lower -income country. Although there is a large difference in the life expectancy and expected health life, the three countries have between two indicators between two indicators.The gap is 12.1, 10.5 and 7.9, respectively.

  China’s uniqueness is that the size of the elderly is huge, correspondingly, the size of the elderly at the unhealthy stage is also very large.The rapid population transition and aging speed of China will inevitably bring a unique phenomenon, that is, the scale of the elderly has grown rapidly.According to the UN forecast, when China became a highly aging society in 2034, the total population of 65 and above was about 293 million, accounting for 27.6%of the global elderly population.It can be seen that solving the health of the elderly is a field of protection and improving people’s livelihood that must be actions and can be greatly available, help to significantly improve people’s well -being, and at the same time create new demographic dividends, and help to realize the modernization of the common prosperity of all people.

  The practical significance of promoting the health of the elderly

  In 2035, the socialist modernization is basically realized as scheduled, and it is measured based on the per capita GDP, the per capita disposable income and the supply level of basic public services.The support of large -scale human resources and consumer groups.Hundreds of millions of healthy elderly population must also be a positive contributor to population dividends and large -scale markets.Therefore, it is of great significance to improve the health guarantee of the elderly and promote the development of the old health industry.

  The first is to help increase the labor participation rate of the elderly and increase the supply of labor and human capital.To attract and accept the employment of older workers and increase the labor participation rate of the elderly population, thereby achieving the goal of delaying the actual retirement age. The basic conditions need to be based on the level of physical and mental health of the elderly.Improving the supply of basic public services and promoting the development of the healthy industries involved in the elderly can be enhanced from the perspective of health, and the human capital of the elderly can be increased and their economic activities can be extended.The efforts in this regard means the in -depth development of “new population dividends” or talent dividends, and contribute to the increase in labor productivity and GDP growth from the supply side and GDP growth.

  The second is to help lift the worries of the elderly after the consumption of the elderly and release the consumption potential of residents.Of course, the health consumption of the elderly is an important demand factor. It can enhance the sustainability of social demand by increasing consumer expenditure and promoting the “carriage” of consumer expenditure and promoting demand structure, and continuously taps the potential for economic growth.At the same time, as an important part of basic public services, the adequacy of the health guarantee for the elderly is also conducive to alleviating the preventive savings motivation of the elderly, and then make their willingness to consume more matching consumption capabilities.

  Third, it helps to make up for the shortcomings of basic public services and market supply involved in the health field, and enhance the well -being of all elderly people.One of the performances of “not rich first” is that there are still shortcomings in endowment protection, medical care and other health services for the elderly.Make up the principles of unified shortcomings to follow the strengths and strengths.In the specific advancement, because the improvement of the health of the elderly can harvest the “new demographic dividend”, and at the same time, the old health industry can also become a new economic growth point. The demographic dividend or reform dividend created is directly manifested as output and the output and the output andIncrease increase.

  Policies and goals in the field of elderly health

  The concept of demographic dividend we usually talk about has actually has two meanings: narrow and general.In a narrow sense, the demographic dividend refers to the number of labor force and quality supply, quality supply, resource resource allocation, savings rate, and investment return rate under the condition of rapid growth, large number and large proportion of the labor age.Economic growth rate.In this sense, the demographic dividend that has long been supporting China’s economic growth for a long time is disappearing.In a broad sense, under any population structure, if you can invest in people targeted and fully tap the large -scale advantages of specific populations, you can create favorable economic growth conditions from the supply side and demand side.It can be seen that excavating the broad population dividends is an inevitable requirement for promoting the high -quality development of the population, and a greater role in public policies requires a greater role.

  Specifically, the aging of the population has a negative impact on economic development to a certain extent, and even has a impact effect, such as reducing potential growth rates, constraints on demand for economic growth, and aggravating the burden of pension.However, creating necessary institutional conditions and promoting specific industrial development can still make full use of the active aspects of population aging.For example, the improvement of life expectancy and expected health life can become the human capital basis of “new demographic dividend”.Even the characteristics of “not rich first” have their positive aspects, such as excavating the potential potential of many existing post -hair advantages.Therefore, in a higher degree of aging society, it also contains the demographic dividend for mining.

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